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Revisited 2011/12 Predicted Championship, League 1, League 2 and Blue Square Premier Tables

May 6, 2012

August 6th 2011 saw an attempt at guessing what the final tables of the above leagues would be. Now we’ve arrived at this moment, we can all laugh at our failures or be smug at getting anything at all correct.

First of all is a reminder of the predictions made here prior to the beginning of this season. Correct predicted placings are in italics, while those incorrect have the individual deviation from prediction to actual finish in brackets (for example, West Ham United were predicted as 1st but finished 3rd therefore the deviation is -2).

CHAMPIONSHIP

1. West Ham United (-2)
2. Leicester City (-7)
3. Nottingham Forest (-16)
4. Leeds United (-10)
5. Birmingham City (+1)
6. Brighton & Hove Albion (-4)
7. Middlesbrough
8. Ipswich Town (-7)
9. Blackpool (+4)
10. Southampton (+8)
11. Cardiff City (+5)
12. Burnley (-1)
13. Hull City (+5)
14. Reading (+13)
15. Portsmouth (-7)
16. Bristol City (-4)
17. Derby County (+5)
18. Millwall (+2)
19. Doncaster Rovers (-5)
20. Watford (+9)
21. Barnsley
22. Crystal Palace (+5)
23. Coventry City
24. Peterborough (+6)

Start as we mean to go on then. Plenty of incorrect predictions but let’s concentrate attention on the three correct placings of Middlesbrough, Barnsley and Coventry City. Having a look at the deviation of incorrect predictions and their actual placings see the predictions for the Championship fall at 5.25 average place deviation. The largest individual deviation in the division was Nottingham Forest who finished 16 places below their predicted finish of 3rd. Yes, i thought the hiring of Steve McLaren was going to be a good bit of business. Reading and Leeds’ fortunes also showed substantial deviation from the predictions, Reading lifting the title a whole 13 places higher than my predicted 14th while Leeds disappointed, finishing 10 places below the prediction of 4th.

LEAGUE 1

1. Huddersfield Town (-3)
2. Preston North End (-13)
3. Scunthorpe United (-15)
4. Sheffield United (+1)
5. MK Dons
6. Sheffield Wednesday (+4)
7. Exeter City (-16)
8. Charlton Athletic (+7)
9. Leyton Orient (-11)
10. Chesterfield (-12)
11. Bournemouth
12. Colchester United (+2)
13. Tranmere Rovers (+1)
14. Wycombe Wanderers (-7)
15. Rochdale (-9)
16. Notts County (+9)
17. Yeovil
18. Oldham Athletic (+2)
19. Walsall
20. Carlisle United (+12)
21. Brentford (+12)
22. Hartlepool United (+9)
23. Bury (+9)
24. Stevenage (+18)

There’s a fair bit of a trend with incorrect predictions as i’m sure you’ll already be aware of. League 1 does however see the most correct placings of any of these divisions with 4 correct places (MK Dons, Bournemouth, Yeovil and Walsall). Despite that, League 1 also has the highest average place deviation of all four leagues with 7.17. A figure substantially aided by the underestimation of Stevenage and the overestimation of Exeter and Scunthorpe to name just two.

LEAGUE 2

1. Bristol Rovers (-12)
2. Rotherham United (-8)
3. Shrewsbury Town (+1)
4. Port Vale (-8)
5. Northampton Town (-15)
6. Gillingham (-2)
7. Aldershot Town (-4)
8. Crawley Town (+5)
9. Oxford United
10. Swindon Town (-9)
11. Torquay United (+6)
12. Plymouth Argyle (-9)
13. Crewe Alexandra (+6)
14. AFC Wimbledon (-2)
15. Dagenham & Redbridge (-4)
16. Accrington Stanley (+2)
17. Southend United (+13)
18. Bradford City
19. Barnet (-3)
20. Macclesfield Town (-4)
21. Cheltenham Town (+15)
22. Hereford United (-1)
23. Burton Albion (+6)
24. Morecambe (+9)

There is a degree of pleasure at the slight inaccuracy with Shrewsbury Town and while there were only two correct placings (Oxford United and Bradford City), an average place deviation of 6 isn’t particularly that bad at least by the fairly dismal standards set by other league predictions.

BLUE SQUARE PREMIER

1. Luton Town (-4)
2. Darlington (-20)
3. Fleetwood Town (+2)
4. Newport County (-15)
5. Grimsby Town (-6)
6. York City (+2)
7. Mansfield Town (+4)
8. Kidderminster Harriers (+2)
9. Gateshead (+1)
10. Cambridge United (+1)
11. Lincoln City (-6)
12. Stockport County (-4)
13. Wrexham (+11)
14. Forest Green Rovers (+4)
15. AFC Telford United (-5)
16. Bath City (-7)
17. Kettering Town (-7)
18. Ebbsfleet United (+4)
19. Alfreton Town (+3)
20. Southport (+13)
21. Barrow (+8)
22. Tamworth (+4)
23. Hayes & Yeading (+2)
24. Braintree Town (+12)

Not a single correct prediction at Conference level. An average place deviation comfortably over 6 was expected but with just 6.42, it’s not as bad as feared. Darlington’s plight is the stand-out overestimation across all four leagues.

So there you have it. League 1 is the best for accurate place predictions yet is the most inaccurate if incorrect. Try and get the sense out of that. Predictions will be back next year and hopefully a year on, a wiser head will mean some much better results.

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